A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
